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Read time: 5 minutes
Can AI actually predict real-world events? OpenAI is kinda…, yes. Plus, the AI world got a major shock: China dropped a 685B open-source monster with zero hype (R1 is out)
What are on FIRE 🔥
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AI INSIGHTS
⚡ Why Forecasting May Be AI’s Most Human Skill Yet
Everyone thought AI would replace writers. Then coders. But what about forecasters? Could AI actually predict real-world events?
A new platform from University of Chicago just dropped. It puts top AI models in live prediction markets, like betting on:
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Who’ll win the next election
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Where crypto prices will land
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Whether Toronto FC can pull off a crazy upset
Let’s see some early results:
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OpenAI’s o3-mini turned $1 into $9 betting on an MLS game. The market gave Toronto FC an 11% chance. o3-mini saw 30%. Bet big.
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Qwen 3 is super confident (75% AI regulation chance). Llama 4 Maverick plays it safe (just 35% on same event).
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GPT-5 wins on accuracy, but o3-mini wins on profits. Being right and being profitable are not the same.
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DeepSeek R1 went full chaos mode, sometimes betting 0% on everything… and still made money on upsets.
Anthropic is weirdly absent. No Claude models on the board yet. Meta’s Llama 4 Maverick was the only one to call the Zohran upset.
Why It Matters: Models are betting on 2028 elections in ways that don’t match human polls. Some clearly know something we don’t. This might be the cleanest test of model-world reasoning yet. Wall Street should probably start paying attention.
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TODAY IN AI
AI HIGHLIGHTS
🛠 Is GPT-5 better than DeepSeek? This time, let’s try testing GPT-5 vs Deepseek with 9 prompts, and there’s a also a clear winner. Here’s the result that surprised me (a lot!)
📷 Higgsfield is taking Product Placement to the next level. Just drop a product image into any scene and get a fully animated, cinematic shot. We found 7 wild examples.
🎥 If you want to understand where the AI industry’s at right now & GPT-5’s router moment, the best interview you can watch is this one with the CEO of SemiAnalysis.
✍️ Grammarly launched 8 new AI agents that act like writing sidekicks across your whole process: AI grader, plagiarism checker, AI detector,…. Check the agents list here.
📈 Ahrefs launched a dashboard tracking web traffic from ChatGPT and Google, so you can track AI search as a measurable channel, across 44,421 sites. Try using it here.
👨💻 Microsoft Copilot AI is now directly into Excel with a new COPILOT function to pull data from outside sources, all by typing a simple formula. Watch a quick tutorial here.
💰 AI Daily Fundraising: Celestial AI secured $520M in total funding, with $255M from Series C1. Key investors like Fidelity and BlackRock support its technology, which enhances AI infrastructure efficiency.
AI SOURCES FROM AI FIRE
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Click here to get rewarded (just fill out the form, we’ll send it to you)
P/S: We read everything, your comments, feedback. You helped us improve. So we hope you’ll keep supporting us as we enter this next chapter of building the open-AI economy on-chain.
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AI QUICK HITS
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🏠 Adobe delivers new AI home with PDF spaces, creation tools, agents.
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💸 Meta AI house’s being rebuilt mid-race to play with OpenAI.
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🔐 OpenAI is “very serious” about adding encryption to ChatGPT.
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🎥 ByteDance’s new M3-Agent to process visuals & audio in real-time.
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⚡ Nvidia released a new small, open model with reasoning toggle.
AI CHART
🎯 China Quietly Dropped a 685B-Param Open-Source Monster
DeepSeek V3.1 is here, and it’s gunning straight at GPT-5 and Claude 4. On Tuesday, DeepSeek casually uploaded a 685B parameter frontier model to Hugging Face with zero hype.
→ But it’s faster than Claude, cheaper than GPT, open-sourced, and might be the most capable model freely available anywhere.
Early tests show it matches GPT-5 and Claude 4 in real-world benchmarks. Example? It scored 71.6% on Aider (coding benchmark), slightly beating Claude Opus 4 while being 68x cheaper.
Unlike other “open” models that are either nerfed or bloated, V3.1 is both high-performance and efficient.
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Fast enough for real-time apps
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Supports BF16, FP8, and other precision formats
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New “thinking tokens” + search tokens for internal reasoning + live web data
Community sleuths even noted DeepSeek quietly removed the old “R1” versions and replaced all endpoints with V3.1 → a single, unified product.
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